Piling On

When I talk to my financial advisor about trends in the market, he is always skeptical. He goes with the notion that the market will do whatever it needs to to confound the most people. Now despite his fierce commitment to free markets and the belief - it has always seemed a little hare-brained to me - that markets left to their own devices will do better for most people than markets that are regulated, he remains doubtful that a big move by a lot of people represents wisdom.

While I do not share his confidence in the fair flow of capital if left alone - and I regard the concept as an untried myth - I do agree that trends are often more about yesterday's wisdom than about a good forecast of what lies ahead. By the time most of us catch on, the trend has run its course and is on to the next big thing.

I certainly find that in fashion. It took me decades to feel comfortable in jeans for other than working outside. Now that I wear them every day to my writing station, I am told they are passe.

I am happy to see so many people, even politicians of his own party and persuasion within his party, turning against President Bush, particularly, but not only, about Iraq. But crowds are not brave and this piling on likely indicates that he is through as the one who can set the course, and that it is now going to be incredibly difficult to figure out how best to extricate ourselves from our failed attempt to mold Iraq into our friendly base in the oil rich mideast. Unlike Viet Nam, we cannot simply leave, because we continue to have vital interests in the region so long as we continue to be the biggest guzzlers of energy on the planet. And Iran has taken advantage of both our ongoing need for that oil and our inept if not disastrous adventure, by rattling their nuclear sword knowing we must now be cautious about how we move in that region.

While I am glad to see the shift in opinion and power away from those who have believed we can use our undisputed power to intimidate the world into going our way, this seemingly massive shift among our electorate likely signals some bad decision making ahead.

What would I do if I were charged with deciding how to proceed? Aside from focusing resources - vast Marshall Plan type resources - on developing alternate energy sources and Sierra Club type ingenuity in learning new habits for conserving energy, I don't know. I would hope we could signal nations of the middle east that we have been humbled by our Iraq debacle and we're now ready to take some new tack. Could we warn Israel that we are not the undisputed power, able to do as we please nation and they need to make plans accordingly?

But I fear that may be dreaming. Now that we, the herd, has shifted, the politicians will be running for the exits from Iraq and it will be chaos, not considered.