The Dismal Science
Economics has been called the dismal science. Dismal maybe, but science? I don't think so.
A friend cornered me the other day to explain his latest doomsday scenario which this time has to do with the fact that we can no longer calculate with any confidence the cost of those things that matter the most to us. He was focused on the environment which, he says, is in such terrible shape, that trying to figure the cost of renewing it is beyond the scope of any method now known. He has many schemes which he believes will do in our species if not our planet, and he is so smart and talks so fast, I am usually dazzled.
This time we got into the matter of the schizophrenic tracking of oil; it's availability and its cost. Virtually every day we read a report of how much supply the U.S. has, how much is able to be pumped and refined, and what the long term prospects are for pumping oil from the shale in the future which is rapidly becoming a consumption race between the U.S. and China.
And the reports are not simply different from day to day, they are often directly contradictory from one day to the next. Today the price of crude rose more than a percent because it was reported that our reserves were far smaller than previously estimated. Last week the price had dropped below $45 for the first time in months because the reserves were reported to be much larger than previously thought.
The reality is we really don't know much. We agree to act as if someone does, and we entrust to unfortunate icons like Alan Greenspan judgments beyond the reasonable ken of human knowledge.
The morning after Bill Clinton's inaugeration, he and Hilary are reported to have woken in the White House, and Bill looked over at Hilary and asked, "Can you believe this shit?"
Now some have said that made them feel as if Bonnie and Clyde had taken up residence in the Presidential mansion. It made me feel as if someone with accurate perspective was in the Big Seat.
A friend cornered me the other day to explain his latest doomsday scenario which this time has to do with the fact that we can no longer calculate with any confidence the cost of those things that matter the most to us. He was focused on the environment which, he says, is in such terrible shape, that trying to figure the cost of renewing it is beyond the scope of any method now known. He has many schemes which he believes will do in our species if not our planet, and he is so smart and talks so fast, I am usually dazzled.
This time we got into the matter of the schizophrenic tracking of oil; it's availability and its cost. Virtually every day we read a report of how much supply the U.S. has, how much is able to be pumped and refined, and what the long term prospects are for pumping oil from the shale in the future which is rapidly becoming a consumption race between the U.S. and China.
And the reports are not simply different from day to day, they are often directly contradictory from one day to the next. Today the price of crude rose more than a percent because it was reported that our reserves were far smaller than previously estimated. Last week the price had dropped below $45 for the first time in months because the reserves were reported to be much larger than previously thought.
The reality is we really don't know much. We agree to act as if someone does, and we entrust to unfortunate icons like Alan Greenspan judgments beyond the reasonable ken of human knowledge.
The morning after Bill Clinton's inaugeration, he and Hilary are reported to have woken in the White House, and Bill looked over at Hilary and asked, "Can you believe this shit?"
Now some have said that made them feel as if Bonnie and Clyde had taken up residence in the Presidential mansion. It made me feel as if someone with accurate perspective was in the Big Seat.
posted by Blayney at 4:51 PM
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